Green Hydrogen and Trans-Mediterranean Pioneers: The Cases of Morocco and Egypt
The Euro-Mediterranean energy landscape is at a pivotal moment, with green hydrogen emerging as a strategic pillar in Europe’s post-Russian gas era. This policy paper examines how Morocco and Egypt are leveraging their renewable energy potential, strategic location, and foreign investment flows to develop large-scale hydrogen production and export infrastructure. While both countries seek to position themselves as key hydrogen suppliers to European markets, their strategies reveal competing priorities between export ambitions and domestic energy security. Morocco’s hydrogen roadmap is heavily export-oriented, with a strong focus on European partnerships and interconnection projects, while Egypt aims to integrate hydrogen development into its Vision 2030 strategy, capitalizing on its LNG infrastructure and regional trade links. However, financial dependence on external investors, energy price volatility, and governance risks could hinder the long-term competitiveness of both markets. As Europe’s hydrogen demand surges, the paper underscores the urgency of regulatory harmonization, infrastructure investment, and risk mitigation mechanisms to ensure a secure and competitive Euro-Mediterranean hydrogen market. It concludes with policy recommendations on regional cooperation, investment frameworks, and strategic planning, positioning the Mediterranean as a key player in the global hydrogen transition.
The development of green hydrogen in North Africa is gaining unprecedented momentum, driven by Europe’s decarbonization efforts, shifting global energy markets, and rising geopolitical tensions. The region is positioning itself as a critical partner in the European Union’s (EU) energy diversification strategy, particularly as the REPowerEU plan accelerates the search for alternative energy suppliers amid persistent disruptions in natural gas flows and the EU’s commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
In this context, Morocco and Egypt are emerging as key players in the developing global green hydrogen market, leveraging their abundant renewable resources, strategic geographical locations, and growing investment frameworks. Both countries aim to transition from reliance on traditional fossil fuel to become leaders in clean energy, capitalizing on EU-backed financing mechanisms, foreign direct investment (FDI), and regional cooperation agreements[1]. However, their approaches differ in scope, regulatory structure, and the extent to which they prioritize domestic energy security versus export-driven growth.
Morocco has established itself as one of the most attractive investment destinations for green hydrogen in the MENA region, thanks to a structured and ambitious policy framework, which includes the Green Hydrogen Roadmap (GHR) and the Morocco Offer initiative[2]. The country has actively secured partnerships with European stakeholders like Germany and Spain, while also working to develop hydrogen transport infrastructure, such as proposed interconnectors with Portugal and the UK. However, the main challenges for Morocco are how to balance export ambitions with ever increasing domestic energy demand, how to ensure grid stability, and how to address water scarcity issues linked to hydrogen production.
Egypt, is integrating green hydrogen into its broader Vision 2030, positioning itself as a regional hub for low-carbon energy. With over $83 billion in planned hydrogen and ammonia investments, Egypt aims at leveraging its existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone)[3], and extensive partnerships with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Gulf investors[4]. However, these ambitions are tested by the country’s macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including high external debt and currency depreciation. Moreover, Egypt current dependence on natural gas imports could hinder the scalability and long-term competitiveness of its hydrogen sector.
This policy report explores the current landscape of green hydrogen development in Morocco and Egypt, assessing the policy frameworks, investment flows, and geopolitical risks that will shape their trajectories in the coming years. By examining infrastructure needs, regulatory challenges, and regional energy partnerships, the analysis provides a forward-looking perspective on how these two Mediterranean economies can position themselves as strategic hydrogen suppliers while ensuring domestic energy resilience and long-term sustainability.
The emergence of green hydrogen production hubs in North Africa marks a transformative moment in Euro-Mediterranean energy relations. Morocco and Egypt stand as leading examples of this transition, leveraging their abundant renewable resources to evolve from traditional energy importers or fossil fuel exporters into potential clean energy leaders. Their experiences in developing green hydrogen capabilities, while balancing domestic needs with export ambitions, offer insights into the opportunities and challenges of energy transition in the Mediterranean.
2.1. Morocco: Pioneering Green Hydrogen in Western Mediterranean
With a population of around 37 million and an electrification rate of 99.9%[5], Morocco consumed 33.52 TWh of electricity in 2020[6], with annual demand growth between 5% and 7%[7]. The country’s installed capacity reached 15 GW in 2022, while its energy mix was made of 37% coal, 16% hydroelectric, and 18% natural gas[8]. However, hydroelectric power is expected to decrease due to rising droughts caused by climate change[9].
Despite a 5.3% increase in electricity generation in 2021 and a 36.5% rise in exports[10], Morocco remains heavily dependent on energy imports, primarily hydrocarbons[11], and has annual CO2 emissions of 62.2 million tons[12]. The country’s approach to the “energy trilemma” (energy security, environmental sustainability, and affordability) is rated as “DCC”[13] by the World Energy Council[14]. Having hosted the UNFCCC COP twice, Morocco has set ambitious targets under the 2015 Paris Agreement’s NDCs, including a 45.5% reduction in emissions from the baseline scenario and 52% of installed capacity from renewable sources by 2030[15]. In addition, since COP26 in 2021, Morocco has committed not to invest in new coal-fired power plants.
The 2021 Green Hydrogen Roadmap (GHR)[16] represents Morocco’s most comprehensive strategic document for developing a green hydrogen economy. While it is closely aligned with Morocco’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments under the Paris Agreement, the GHR serves not only as a climate policy tool but also as an ambitious industrial strategy. On one hand, the GHR directly supports the NDC’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions —with international support—and a pledge to refrain from building new coal-fired power plants[17]. On the other hand, the roadmap outlines a phased approach to the development of a domestic green hydrogen industry, beginning with its integration into existing industrial sectors and progressing toward large-scale export and electricity storage from 2030 onwards.
Morocco’s bet on green hydrogen is motivated by several strategic considerations. Firstly, national policy documents frequently highlight the country’s exceptional renewable energy potential—particularly solar and wind—which could underpin cost-competitive hydrogen production. By investing early in this sector, Morocco aims to position itself as a regional leader and preferred supplier of green hydrogen to European markets, which are expected to generate significant demand in the context of the EU’s decarbonisation targets and the REPowerEU plan. The roadmap sets a target to export up to 10 TWh of green hydrogen by 2030, primarily via maritime routes, as pipelines for hydrogen transport are still in their infancy[18]. Additionally, domestically produced green hydrogen is envisioned to support electricity storage and grid balancing, enhancing energy security.
The Moroccan government justifies this strategic orientation by referencing both environmental and economic rationales. Green hydrogen is framed as a “game changer” that can drive sustainable industrialisation, attract foreign investment, create high-value jobs, and reinforce Morocco’s geopolitical relevance as a trans-Mediterranean energy partner. Within the broader Mediterranean energy transition, Morocco seeks to leverage its geography and renewable resources to become a key player in future energy value chains, providing Europe not only with green molecules but also with stable, diversified supply routes. However, it is important to note that, even under the Green Hydrogen Roadmap’s most ambitious scenarios, Morocco continues to rely on its existing coal power plants for base-load electricity generation. This ongoing dependence raises concerns regarding both long-term energy security and the country’s ability to meet its decarbonisation objectives. According to government modelling, achieving the NDC scenario is only marginally more expensive (by about 1.3%, or approximately $375 million) than the minimum-cost pathway, yet it would enable a 23.32% reduction in emissions by 2050—underscoring the challenges and trade-offs inherent in the transition process[19].
The GHR forecasts a demand of up to 30 TWh by 2030 and 307 TWh by 2050, which would require 2 GW of renewable energy sources. The three phases, culminating in 2030, 2040, and 2050, outline a gradual increase in production costs and large exports to target countries in the short term, followed by a reduction in costs and greater local use of green hydrogen in the power sector in the medium term. This will eventually expand to include the use of hydrogen for residential heating, urban mobility, and ammonia production. The roadmap points to an expected local hydrogen market of 4 TWh by 2030, is, while the export market should reach 10 TWh. This scenario will require the construction of 6 GW of new renewable capacity, supporting the creation of over 15,000 direct and indirect jobs.
In March 2024, Morocco announced the Morocco Offer[20], an initiative aimed at attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in the green hydrogen sector. This offer covers the entire value chain of the green hydrogen industry, from renewable electricity generation to the production of green hydrogen and its derivatives like green ammonia, methanol, and synthetic fuels. The Moroccan government has allocated one million hectares of public land for wind and solar energy development for green hydrogen projects. 300,000 hectares in parcels ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 hectares have been made immediately available[21] and around 100 national and international investors have already expressed interest with 40 project proposals submitted to the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN), covering various regions[22]. These projects are intended for both the domestic market and for export, highlighting Morocco’s ambitious plan to develop a robust green hydrogen industry. However, while it demonstrates significant momentum for a North African country, it remains modest when compared to the hundreds of hydrogen-related project announcements registered across Europe under the EU Hydrogen Strategy and national plans in countries such as Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands[23]. In the MENA region, Morocco stands out as a frontrunner, with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates also attracting sizable project pipelines, though often at earlier stages or with greater emphasis on blue hydrogen.
The submitted projects in Morocco cover a range of activities across the value chain, including large-scale renewable generation (solar and wind farms), electrolysis plants, facilities for green ammonia and synthetic fuels production, and related export infrastructure. Most proposals come from consortia or joint ventures involving European and Asian energy majors, local conglomerates, and institutional investors—reflecting the capital-intensive nature and risk profile of such initiatives. Financing is expected to rely on a mix of foreign direct investment, public–private partnerships, concessional loans from development banks (such as the EIB, AfDB, or World Bank), and, potentially, green bonds or blended finance solutions. While the number of project proposals is an encouraging indicator, the translation of these proposals into bankable projects will depend on factors such as regulatory clarity, financial de-risking mechanisms, and the development of supporting infrastructure—challenges that are common across the region and observed even in more advanced European markets[24].
Among others, notable projects include Cluster GreenH2A[25], a research platform focused on “Power-To-X” technologies[26], aiming to lead innovation in hydrogen, ammonia, green methanol, synthetic fuels, and water treatment. Additionally, the Moroccan government is exploring natural hydrogen resources through the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM)[27], with promising concentrations already identified in underground deposits.
The country is also developing a national hydrogen cluster to foster collaboration between regional actors and stakeholders. Key international partnerships, such as the German-Moroccan hydrogen agreement, part of the German-Moroccan Energy Partnership (PAREMA)[28] and the Total Energies project, underscore Morocco’s potential. PAREMA provides significant incentives for international partners: Germany and other European actors benefit from Morocco’s abundant and low-cost renewable energy resources, geographical proximity to Europe, and Morocco’s strong policy support for green hydrogen. In return, Morocco secures technology transfer, investment, and a long-term export market. However, scaling current projects is not without challenges. Obstacles include regulatory uncertainties (notably regarding hydrogen certification and export frameworks), the need for robust infrastructure (pipelines, port terminals), and the complexity of financing large-scale projects, especially given competition from other regions also seeking to attract international capital and technology[29].
With planned investments and infrastructure developments, including a 10 GW green hydrogen production facility by Total Energies and a 200 MWe electrolyzer project by CMMZE Invest UAE and Gaia Future Energy[30], Morocco is poised to become a leading green hydrogen producer by 2025. Gaia Energy, a leading African renewable energy developer established in 2009. The company is currently developing eight large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia projects across Africa with a total capacity of 60 GW, while also operating smaller-scale initiatives like the recently inaugurated 386.41 kW photovoltaic power plant in Tangier Med industrial platform. Their projects under development aim to harness Morocco’s renewable resources to potentially meet up to 4% of Germany and Italy’s electricity needs and could satisfy 25% of the EU’s green hydrogen demand[31].
Another key initiative is the Jorf Lasfar (HydroJeel’s Jorf Hydrogen Platform), located in Jorf-El Jadida. This ambitious project aims to produce 100,000 tons of green ammonia annually by 2026. Supported by the German government through the PtX Development Fund, it will utilize newly-built wind and solar plants to power the production process. The green ammonia produced will be used by OCP, a Moroccan fertilizer giant, for its nitrogen-based fertilizer production. OCP has committed $1.5 billion to the project, with an additional €30 million grant from the PtX Development[32].
Guelmim-Oued Noun is another significant region in Morocco’s green hydrogen strategy. This area is part of the initial selection of projects focused on green hydrogen production and is expected to play a crucial role in the country’s green hydrogen efforts. The government is optimizing the use of public land for these projects, demonstrating its commitment to the sector[33]. Moreover, two key initiatives include two major feasibility projects: the HEVO-Morocco and Masen KfW projects, both based on electrolyser technology with a combined target production of 120 ktonH2/y[34]. In the Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra region, several projects are in the pipeline, leveraging the area’s renewable energy resources for green hydrogen production source. Similarly, the Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab region is included in the initial selection of projects, contributing to Morocco’s broader vision of becoming a leader in the clean energy transition[35].
Morocco’s extensive portfolio of green hydrogen projects and partnerships demonstrates clear strategic intent to establish the country as a Mediterranean and African leader in the emerging hydrogen economy. The scale and diversity of these initiatives reflect strong national commitment, effective international outreach, and the mobilisation of significant public and private resources. However, the successful realisation of this ambition will require a decisive shift from project announcements to implementation and operation. Converting this dynamic pipeline into a mature, export-ready sector will depend on coordinated policy action in several areas: accelerating regulatory reform and permitting processes, ensuring market transparency and certification standards, expanding infrastructure, and deploying de-risking financial instruments to crowd in further investment. Progress in these areas will also position Morocco as a credible partner for Europe and a regional benchmark for green hydrogen policy. Sustained political support and regional cooperation will be essential to maximise the impact of Morocco’s green hydrogen strategy and facilitate broader Mediterranean integration in the energy transition.
Furthermore, Morocco’s success in the green hydrogen industry could serve as a model for other North African countries, stimulating greater regional cooperation and promoting sustainable development. For other countries in the region, Morocco demonstrates the importance of proactive policy frameworks, international alliances, and early investment in enabling infrastructure. Adapting these lessons to local contexts, while pursuing greater regional integration, will be crucial for building a competitive and sustainable hydrogen economy in the broader Mediterranean region. However, to improve the attractiveness and replicability of Morocco’s model, further actions are needed.
For example, a Moroccan significant infrastructure initiative is the proposed hydrogen pipeline, unveiled in February 2024, which envisions a 5,600 km linkage across 11 West African nations, including Mauritania. This ambitious project aims to transport hydrogen to over 400 million people, fostering regional integration and socio-economic development[36]. With an estimated budget of $25 billion, the pipeline faces challenges such as export infrastructure and high construction costs but it also has the potential to transform the energy landscape and Morocco’s strategic advantage in green hydrogen production. These developments are particularly significant as they reinforce Morocco’s trajectory as a successful example of economic diversification beyond fossil fuels.
Over the past decade, Morocco has deliberately fostered the growth of new industrial sectors—most notably automotive, food and beverage processing, and textiles—which now constitute a substantial share of national exports and employment. The automotive sector, led by global manufacturers such as Renault and Stellantis, has positioned Morocco as the leading car producer in Africa, supported by an expanding network of local suppliers and component manufacturers[37]. In the food and beverage sector, Morocco has attracted significant foreign and domestic investment, leveraging its agricultural base and export orientation toward European markets. The textile industry, traditionally a mainstay of Moroccan manufacturing, has adapted to international demand for sustainable and traceable products, supported by modernization efforts and integration into global value chains. These industries are particularly well-placed to benefit from the country’s push toward decarbonization, as they are amenable to electrification and the use of green hydrogen—both as a clean energy source and as an input for low-carbon manufacturing processes[38]. In this way, Morocco’s investments in renewable energy and hydrogen infrastructure also serve as key enablers for the competitive and sustainable transformation of its industrial base.
Morocco’s energy transition also presents important challenges. While Morocco plans to raise renewables’ share in its power generation from around 38% currently (2022) to 52% by 2030 and 80% by 2050, it currently depends on imports for 90% of its energy needs, with fossil fuels dominating its electricity production – about 80.5% coming from coal, gas, and oil in 2021, compared to only 12.4% from wind and 4.4% from solar[39]. According to a World Bank analysis, pursuing both domestic renewable expansion and exports could bring substantial benefits to Morocco, including the creation of approximately 28,000 new jobs annually and reduced exposure to fossil fuel price volatility[40]. However, Morocco’s ambitious export-oriented strategy has sparked debate among stakeholders. Climate activists argue for prioritizing domestic energy security before pursuing exports, while the government’s position, as articulated by Energy Transition Minister Leila Benali, attempts to balance these competing demands by emphasizing both domestic access to “lowest-cost” green energy and the strategic importance of integrating with European energy markets to attract private investment[41].
Whether a true balance between domestic and export priorities is achievable remains an open question. While export revenues and foreign investment can accelerate sector development and help finance large-scale infrastructure, an excessive focus on serving external markets may risk delaying or diverting benefits from the domestic economy. Potential drawbacks of de-prioritisation of domestic supply include rising energy prices for local consumers, “resource drain”, where the best renewable sites are reserved for export projects, and the risk of replicating past dependency patterns—this time centered on renewable resources rather than fossil fuels. Additionally, large-scale hydrogen and renewable projects present important sustainability challenges, particularly regarding water use for electrolysis in arid regions, land competition, and the social impacts on local communities. Effective governance frameworks, transparent benefit-sharing mechanisms, and robust environmental safeguards will be critical to ensure that Morocco’s green energy transition delivers broad-based and sustainable development outcomes, rather than exacerbating existing inequalities or generating new sources of social tension[42].
Regarding EU involvement, the European Investment Bank (EIB) has been actively financing renewable energy projects in Morocco. In 2022, the EIB injected more than €381 million into Morocco’s economy, with half allocated to infrastructure projects for environmental protection, renewable energy, and energy efficiency[43]. Additionally, as part of the Africa-EU Green Energy Initiative, preparations are underway to build a Power-to-X (P2X) hydrogen power reference plant in Morocco. This public-private partnership aims to strengthen Morocco’s position in the green hydrogen sector, with a grant of up to USD 110 million (EUR 100 million) to de-risk and facilitate the project[44].
Although the specific number of EU-funded or backed projects is not fully detailed, the European Investment Bank’s involvement and the Africa-EU Green Energy Initiative, supported by member states including Belgium, France, Germany, and Spain, signal substantial external support for Morocco’s hydrogen agenda[45]. This leadership role is also reshaping regional dynamics. Morocco’s experience is increasingly seen as a model by neighbouring countries, particularly Tunisia[46], which launched its own green hydrogen initiative in July 2024[47], signing six MoUs with European firms. Both countries are leveraging their strategic proximity to Europe and vast renewable resources to attract foreign investment and accelerate their energy transitions. Moreover, Morocco’s participation in cross-border projects like the Southern Hydrogen Corridor – linking Algeria, Tunisia, and Italy[48] – illustrates its central role in shaping a Mediterranean green hydrogen backbone. A shared approach to infrastructure, regulation, and market access could amplify benefits for the region and avoid the inefficiencies of fragmented national strategies. On the other hand, regional competition from countries like Tunisia, which are developing similar strategies, could further fragment the market and reduce economies of scale.
To consolidate its position as a regional leader, Morocco should adopt a binding coal phase-out roadmap and better align its export ambitions with domestic energy needs. Investing in dedicated hydrogen infrastructure and promoting desalinated water use can mitigate environmental risks. Developing infrastructure for hydrogen transport and storage is essential, along with promoting the use of desalinated water to minimize environmental impact.
At the regional level, a structured cooperation platform could harmonise regulatory frameworks and coordinate investments, avoiding harmful competition and unlocking economies of scale. Finally, private investment should be encouraged through targeted incentives and risk-sharing mechanisms to reduce uncertainty over production and transport costs. An integrated and balanced approach will be key to ensuring that Morocco’s green hydrogen strategy delivers long-term sustainability,both nationally and across the wider MENA region. Furthermore, a regional cooperation platform in the MENA region could facilitate regulatory standardization and investment coordination, preventing inefficient competition. Structuring incentives to attract private investment and implementing risk-sharing mechanisms would help mitigate uncertainty regarding production and transportation costs. An integrated and balanced approach will be crucial for positioning Morocco as a leader in green hydrogen, ensuring long-term economic and energy sustainability.
2.2. Egypt: Emerging as a Regional Green Hydrogen Hub
Further east, Egypt also aims to become one of the major players in the global hydrogen market, with a green hydrogen production capacity projected to reach 5 million tons per year by 2030[49]. This ambition aligns with Egypt Vision 2030, the country’s long-term strategy for economic diversification, which prioritizes energy transition and industrial modernization[50]. The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) and the Red Sea corridor are central to this plan, with more than $83 billion in planned green hydrogen and ammonia investments concentrated in these areas[51] to develop low-carbon fuels, establish itself as a major maritime bunkering hub, and supply both export and domestic markets with green ammonia. Its hydrogen strategy is based on a mix of geographical advantages, existing natural gas production for blue hydrogen, and a well-developed fertiliser industry, which represents the largest domestic off-taker of ammonia[52].
In August 2024, Egypt launched its National Strategy for Low-Carbon Hydrogen, developed with support from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The strategy aims to create over 100,000 jobs and contribute $10-18 billion annually to the economy by 2040, with a focus on both green and blue hydrogen[53]. It blends the four key green industrialisation strategies seen in African economies: a) Decarbonising existing industries, particularly fertiliser and petrochemicals; b) Producing inputs for global green industries, such as synthetic fuels (e-fuels); c) Manufacturing green products for African markets, particularly ammonia-based fertilisers; d) Leveraging existing ‘brown’ capabilities to scale up green industries, using blue hydrogen as a transitional step[54]. Concurrently, Egypt has already launched 21 green hydrogen-related projects, including strategic agreements with Norway’s Scatec, UAE’s Masdar, and Germany’s H2 Industries for hydrogen exports to Europe[55]. To implement this strategy, Egypt created a National Council for Green Hydrogen and its Derivatives, with the goal of capturing 5-8% of the global hydrogen market by 2040[56]. The government actively promotes foreign investment, targeting concessional finance from the EU, multilateral development banks, and private investors.
Egypt’s energy potential makes it a strong candidate for hydrogen production. The country has a diversified manufacturing base, with 9 major firms in the iron and steel sector, over 9,000 chemical companies, and more than 17,000 firms in the non-ferrous metal sector, crucial for hydrogen demand[57]. Moreover, Egypt has some of the world’s best solar resources and top-tier wind energy potential, with onshore and offshore wind speeds exceeding 10 m/s in the Gulf of Suez[58]. Additionally, Egypt has decades of experience with hydrogen and ammonia production. Between the 1960s and 2019, Egypt produced green hydrogen for ammonia using electricity from the Aswan Dam, before switching to grey ammonia production due to cheap natural gas[59]. Today, Egypt produces grey hydrogen, which remains significantly cheaper than green hydrogen, primarily for its domestic ammonia market[60].However, Egypt’s hydrogen strategy is also shaped by its experience in the East Mediterranean gas sector. The discovery of the Zohr gas field in 2015, one of the largest in the region with 850 billion cubic meters of reserves, transformed Egypt into a regional gas hub[61]. The country became a net gas exporter again in 2018 and in 2023 supplied LNG to Europe via the Damietta and Idku LNG terminals, which processed 7.1 million tons of LNG[62]. Egypt views hydrogen as a natural progression of its energy strategy, ensuring its continued relevance in European energy security discussions as the EU transitions away from fossil fuels[63].
However, Egypt’s hydrogen ambitions face significant economic and structural challenges. Egypt’s gas production is declining, raising concerns about energy security and price volatility. Historically, Egypt was self-sufficient in ammonia production thanks to its domestic gas reserves, but recent gas output declines have increased reliance on imports[64]. This shift could make Egypt’s hydrogen strategy increasingly about import substitution, in addition to export-driven market opportunities and decarbonisation objectives.
At the same time, Egypt must address significant economic and financial constraints. The country has one of the highest external debt levels in the MENA region, equivalent to 89% of GDP[65]. Inflation remains high at over 30% in early 2024, leading to a sharp depreciation of the Egyptian pound and raising concerns about the viability of large-scale infrastructure investments[66]. Additionally, the Egyptian military plays a dominant role in the economy, controlling up to 40% of GDP, including key sectors like energy, construction, and manufacturing[67], raising concerns about transparency and competition, and potentially discouraging private and foreign investment in the hydrogen sector
More than the Moroccan case, Egypt’s energy trajectory reveals the significant challenges of balancing domestic needs with export ambitions. Domestic constraints forced it to halt LNG exports in April 2023 and switch to imports, with approximately 24 cargoes (1.59 million metric tons) imported in 2023 alone. This trend is expected to continue, with Egyptian short-term demand for LNG forecast to grow from around 2.50 MMt in 2024 to 3.57 MMt in 2025, peaking at 4.85 MMt in 2027[68].
The situation is further complicated by regional geopolitical tensions, particularly the security of energy supplies from Israel. Egypt currently imports about 30 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) of natural gas from Israel, equivalent to 10 LNG cargoes per month[69], through the EMG pipeline that connects the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields to Egyptian liquefaction plants at Idku and Damietta[70]. This supply is crucial for Egypt’s ability to re-export LNG to Europe, especially after domestic gas production declined from 69.6 bcm in 2021 to 64.5 bcm in 2023, a trend expected to continue due to depleting reserves in mature fields like Zohr[71].
The dependence on Israeli gas exposes Egypt to potential supply disruptions stemming from regional instability, including conflicts involving Gaza, Hezbollah activity in Lebanon, and wider East Mediterranean geopolitical frictions. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, Chevron temporarily halted gas production at Israel’s Tamar field due to security concerns[72]. The shutdown led to a 30% reduction in gas flows to Egypt, forcing the country to cut LNG exports and prioritize domestic consumption, thus sharply highlighting the fragility of Egypt’s energy security strategy[73]. While some flows from Israel partially resumed in subsequent months, volumes have remained consistently below pre-conflict levels throughout 2024 and into 2025 and continue to be subject to renewed interruptions as regional tensions persist[74]. As a result, Egypt faces ongoing challenges in sustaining its role as a regional gas hub and in securing reliable energy supplies for both domestic needs and export commitments. Further risks include uncertainty over Israeli domestic gas policies, as political debates in Israel over extending Leviathan’s export cap beyond 2030 could limit future supply to Egypt[75]. Additionally, Egypt’s reliance on floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) for seasonal LNG imports underscores its growing difficulty in meeting domestic gas demand, particularly during summer peak periods[76].
This complex scenario shows how rapidly changing domestic energy demands, combined with regional interdependencies and geopolitical risks, can affect a country’s energy security and export capabilities. While green hydrogen presents significant opportunities for Egypt to reduce reliance on imported gas, its development requires long-term stability in energy supply chains, substantial infrastructure investments, and a clear regulatory framework to ensure both domestic energy security and competitiveness in the global hydrogen market. The Egyptian case thus highlights a critical challenge for hydrocarbon-dependent economies in transition: balancing export ambitions with internal energy security in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.
Despite these challenges, two major feasibility studies are underway: the Ain Sokhna ammonia project and the East Port Said waste-to-hydrogen initiative, with a combined production target of 645 ktonH2/y, including 300 ktonH2/y from 2GW of electrolysers . If successfully implemented, these projects could position Egypt as a key supplier of green hydrogen to Europe, provided that economic and institutional obstacles do not undermine their execution.
Large-scale projects, such as green ammonia production plants in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZONE), are emblematic of the new role Egypt intends to play in the global energy landscape. One of the most significant recent developments is the “Egypt Green Hydrogen” project, which in February 2024 secured a €397 million contract to export green fuel to Europe, reinforcing Egypt’s position as a key supplier[78]. The first phase of the project, located in Ain Sokhna, will produce 20,000 tons per year (t/y) of green hydrogen, with plans to scale up to 220,000 t/y in later stages. The SCZONE’s strategic location offers a competitive advantage by providing direct access to European markets via existing maritime trade routes and leveraging Egypt’s role as a transit hub for energy exports[79].
The green hydrogen industry in Egypt could contribute between $10-18 billion to the country’s GDP by 2030, creating over 100,000 new jobs across the renewable energy, logistics, and manufacturing sectors[80]. Egypt’s strategy focuses not only on exporting green fuels but also on developing a domestic value chain, including electrolyser manufacturing, ammonia production, and green steel. These developments enhance Egypt’s competitiveness in the global clean energy market while also strengthening economic and political ties with Europe, particularly as the EU seeks alternative hydrogen suppliers to reduce dependence on Russia and accelerate its REPowerEU plan. In this direction, the European Union has intensified cooperation with Egypt. A key milestone in this collaboration was the EU-Egypt Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Hydrogen Cooperation, signed in November 2022, which establishes a framework for joint investments, technology transfer, and regulatory alignment[81].
The European Union, through various financial institutions, has mobilized over €5 billion to support Egypt’s energy transition, with a growing focus on green hydrogen. This package includes:
These agreements focus on three key areas of investment, each playing a crucial role in shaping Egypt’s green hydrogen sector. First, a significant portion of the funding is directed towards research and development (R&D), supporting pilot projects that aim to enhance the efficiency of electrolyzers, hydrogen storage solutions, and hybrid renewable-hydrogen plants. These initiatives are essential for improving technological performance and reducing production costs, making Egypt’s hydrogen sector more competitive in the global market. Another critical aspect of the cooperation is technical training and workforce development. Recognizing the need for a highly skilled labor force, the EU has launched programs to train Egyptian engineers and technicians in hydrogen technologies. Lastly, regulatory alignment is a key priority, as Egypt works to harmonize its hydrogen certification standards with EU regulations. This includes compliance with frameworks such as the EU Hydrogen Bank and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will enable Egypt’s green hydrogen exports to seamlessly integrate into the European market[85]. By ensuring that its production meets EU sustainability and emissions criteria, Egypt strengthens its position as a reliable and attractive supplier for European energy demand.
Beyond supplying clean energy to Europe, Egypt aims to become a regional hub for green hydrogen, leveraging its geographical position, renewable energy potential, and existing gas infrastructure. With solar irradiation exceeding 2,400 kWh/m2 per year and wind speeds averaging 10 m/s in the Gulf of Suez, Egypt offers one of the lowest projected Levelized Costs of Hydrogen (LCOH) globally, at approximately $2/kg by 2030[86]. This cost advantage enhances its competitiveness against Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which face higher desalination costs for electrolysis-based hydrogen[87].
This transformation could elevate Egypt from a hydrocarbon exporter to a key geopolitical player in the clean energy transition. The ability to produce and export green hydrogen would not only diversify Egypt’s economy—reducing dependence on volatile LNG revenues—but also strengthen its bargaining position in global energy diplomacy. As a regional hub, Egypt could facilitate energy connectivity between Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, reinforcing its role in EU-African climate cooperation, Gulf investments in renewables, and intercontinental hydrogen trade.
However, the realization of this potential depends on clear policy direction, infrastructure development, and regional cooperation. A crucial priority is regulatory and institutional reform. While Egypt offers competitive production conditions, investors remain concerned about market transparency and state intervention, particularly the military’s extensive role in the economy.
Moreover, to build confidence and facilitate trade with Europe, Egypt must harmonize its hydrogen certification standards with EU frameworks, including the EU Hydrogen Bank and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)[88]. These steps would ensure that Egyptian hydrogen qualifies for the European market’s sustainability criteria, making it a more attractive option for long-term energy agreements. Infrastructure development is another pressing challenge. Egypt’s power grid and port infrastructure require over $20 billion in upgrades to support the large-scale production and export of hydrogen[89]. Securing this level of investment will require a stronger emphasis on public-private partnerships (PPPs) and the mobilization of blended finance mechanisms, including EU-backed green bonds and risk-mitigation instruments. Strengthening these financial structures would provide long-term stability for investors while enabling Egypt to scale up its hydrogen production capacity. Additionally, Egypt must invest in workforce development and technology transfer to ensure that hydrogen production creates long-term economic benefits. Expanding these initiatives and promoting local manufacturing of electrolyzers and hydrogen-related technologies would help Egypt to develop a more integrated hydrogen value chain.
At a geopolitical level, Egypt faces increasing competition from Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have greater financial resources and more advanced export logistics. To maintain its competitive edge, Egypt must strengthen its role as a preferred hydrogen partner for Europe by deepening trilateral cooperation with the EU and African nations, as well as fostering regional agreements with Israel and Gulf states to develop integrated hydrogen corridors. By positioning itself as a central energy transit hub between Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, Egypt can reinforce its strategic leverage in the Mediterranean energy landscape.
3. Conclusion & Policy Recommendations
Morocco and Egypt are positioning themselves as strategic players in the green hydrogen landscape, aiming to integrate into European energy markets and capitalize on the global energy transition. However, their long-term success will hinge on the ability to balance external partnerships with domestic energy resilience, accelerate infrastructure investment, and provide a transparent and stable regulatory environment for investors. Recent geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts—such as the return of Donald Trump to the White House, heightened MENA volatility, and increasing competition from global hydrogen producers—further amplify the strategic importance of these choices.
Morocco: Consolidating Leadership Through Domestic Anchoring
Morocco has made steady progress in building a green hydrogen economy, backed by clear policy frameworks and strong international partnerships. To consolidate its role as a regional leader, Morocco should undertake the following steps:
To accelerate reforms in its domestic electricity governance (notably ANRE), enhancing the operational and regulatory capacity of the National Electricity Regulatory Authority to ensure market transparency, reduce investor risk, and streamline permitting for renewable and hydrogen projects.
To strengthen internal grid infrastructure to match export ambitions — building a systems capable of integrating large- scale renewables and facilitating intra-national distribution, especially in industrial zones.
To allocate a greater share of green hydrogen to decarbonize its own industrial base by prioritising hydrogen use in local heavy industries—such as phosphate processing and fertilizers— and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports while creating a stable, demand-driven market base.
Geopolitically, unresolved issues like Western Sahara and the risk of trade disruptions (e.g., under a second Trump administration) could challenge Morocco’s export orientation, especially amid growing global competition in clean tech supply chains while considering Chinese investments in battery manufacturing[90]. Furthermore, Morocco’s increasingly close ties with the United States may offer new diplomatic leverage but could also expose Rabat to abrupt shifts in trade and investment policies[91]. In parallel, social unrest, including general strikes, underscores the importance of ensuring that the benefits of the green transition are equitably shared, through visible improvements in employment, local development, and social inclusion programs. The social sustainability of the energy transition must not be overlooked. The recent general strike has highlighted the risk that the current development model may exacerbate economic inequalities, thereby hindering inclusive growth. Greater involvement of local stakeholders and policies aimed at redistributing the economic benefits of climate finance will be essential to ensuring a positive impact on the social fabric. If Morocco successfully integrates these elements into its strategy, it will be able to consolidate its position as a green hydrogen leader, while simultaneously enhancing its energy security and solidifying its dual role as both an integrated player in the European energy market and an autonomous and rapidly growing energy actor.
Egypt: Turning Ambition into Competitive Capacity
Egypt’s potential as a hydrogen hub is substantial, especially given its proximity to EU markets and solar-wind synergies. Yet, macroeconomic fragility, institutional opacity, and energy security risks could undermine investor confidence. Priority actions include:
Ensuring regulatory clarity and reducing military dominance in strategic sectors — Policy ambiguity and the pervasive influence of the military in key economic sectors hinder private sector engagement. Streamlining governance and improving transparency are preconditions for scaling foreign direct investment.
Harmonizing hydrogen standards with EU frameworks (e.g., CBAM, Hydrogen Bank) — Aligning Egypt’s hydrogen certification systems with EU frameworks is essential to ensure long-term access to European markets and avoid non-tariff barriers under future climate regulation.
Scaling infrastructure with EU-blended finance and encouraging domestic technology capacity — Egypt’s power grid, ports, and hydrogen production facilities require massive investment. Mobilizing blended finance (grants, guarantees, equity) can de-risk capital inflows, while developing local manufacturing—e.g., electrolyser production—enhances domestic value creation.
Geopolitical volatility—such as Red Sea disruptions or renewed energy shocks—could either boost Egypt’s relevance or expose its vulnerabilities. Egypt’s strategy, as emerging from the latest policy updates, seeks to transform these risks into an opportunity by becoming a pivotal energy bridge between Africa, the Middle East, and Europe[92]. Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s rollback of international climate finance – together with the introduction of new sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which would impact oil and gas prices[93] – raises additional concerns regarding the availability of external funding for green hydrogen infrastructure. This scenario could present an opportunity for Egypt by increasing its LNG exports to the EU (reinforcing the critical role of EU–Egypt partnerships), but it may also drive up energy import costs and slow down renewable energy investments. Furthermore, stability in the Red Sea and the security of trade routes remain critical factors for Egypt’s energy sector.
To consolidate its role in green hydrogen, Egypt must improve its regulatory framework, reduce state interference in the energy sector, and foster greater transparency for private investors. Strengthening cooperation with the EU, particularly through initiatives such as REPowerEU and financial support from European institutions, will be essential for the development of hydrogen infrastructure and for aligning Egyptian environmental standards with EU regulations. In the long term, Egypt’s success will hinge on its ability to diversify its economy, decrease reliance on natural gas, and foster a domestic industrial ecosystem for the development of hydrogen-related technologies. If Egypt navigates these challenges with a forward-looking approach, it can not only enhance its energy security but also establish itself as a strategic partner for the EU in the global energy transition.
Policy Takeaway
Both countries are at a crossroad. They must shift from announcement to execution, ensuring that green hydrogen does not become a top-down, export-driven narrative disconnected from local needs. Thus, a successful transition requires:
Robust governance and public-private collaboration — Clear rules, institutional accountability, and joint planning with industry actors are fundamental to reduce uncertainty and accelerate deployment.
Investment in social inclusion and human capital — Education, vocational training, and community involvement will ensure that the green transition supports job creation and social cohesion, especially in vulnerable regions.
Regional coordination to avoid duplication and enhance scale — North African countries would benefit from harmonised regulations, shared infrastructure, and joint investment platforms to compete globally without fragmenting regionally.
Only by integrating energy security, industrial policy, and climate justice can Morocco and Egypt fully realize their role as pillars of the Euro-Mediterranean green hydrogen corridor. Yet, green hydrogen is no longer merely an energy or climate solution: it is increasingly a geopolitical asset for North African economies to hedge against global volatility, reinforce economic sovereignty, and reposition themselves in a multipolar energy order. Morocco and Egypt must not simply compete for European markets, but actively collaborate to structure a resilient, interoperable, and politically coherent Euro-Mediterranean hydrogen space—anchored in shared prosperity, technological autonomy, and regional stability.
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